MLB · resolved market
Astros vs. White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c943207f635d0a03f1eec0a418c9a5048f19f54733f314265f3ac1f60340ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- White Soxof Astros, White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Astros | 69c | 20,000$13,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,800 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked White Sox | 31c | 12,000$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,280 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked White Sox | 31c | 5,619$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,877.26 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Astros | 68c | 1,665$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Astros | 15c | 1,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Astros | 67c | 999.99$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.99 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked White Sox | 32c | 952.6$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.77 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Astros | 70c | 857.14$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked White Sox | 30c | 757.14$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed White Sox | 33c | 683.76$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.66 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked White Sox | 30c | 563.82$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.68 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked White Sox | 31c | 516$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.04 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked White Sox | 31c | 507$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.83 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed White Sox | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed White Sox | 51c | 410.76$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.79 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed White Sox | 33c | 350$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed White Sox | 32c | 320.01$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.61 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed White Sox | 33c | 312.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.86 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Astros | 17c | 312$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 69c | 287.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked White Sox | 31c | 186.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked White Sox | 33c | 164$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…49aabacked Astros | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…7d78backed Astros | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Astros | 68c | 130$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed White Sox | 31c | 129$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Astros | 45c | 110.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed White Sox | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Astros | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked White Sox | 71c | 61.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed White Sox | 35c | 59.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Astros | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 70c | 44.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed White Sox | 32c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed White Sox | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Astros | 69c | 34.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed White Sox | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Astros | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.