Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30da2454079e1270e525c21325f3b49863e09486ff5872b754872d5cfb0d76b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 66c | 2,422$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.96 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 2,175$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…8958backed Yes | 26c | 1,167$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 25c | 786.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 22c | 420.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 74c | 411$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.14 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 26c | 387.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.4 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 202.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 124.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 68c | 123.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 26c | 94.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 28c | 71.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0f13backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…529ebacked No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…39e4backed Yes | 27c | 54.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 29c | 54.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…8734backed Yes | 27c | 46.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…e599backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 27.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…b0c4backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…640ebacked No | 74c | 19.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26de…0f76backed No | 74c | 17.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…0dc5backed No | 74c | 17.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…eaf6backed No | 79c | 14.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-01?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.