Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7396be506052e823092b7e1ddfde5a604c39adb4d162310bb53261bd8e45209f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 38c | 2,693$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.86 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,544$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.93 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 1,500$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.49 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 33c | 1,090$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.38 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 58c | 1,067$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.77 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 879.72$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 72c | 815.74$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 55c | 721.62$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.1 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 32c | 596.88$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.06 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 24c | 587.14$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.23 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 46c | 432.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 38c | 408.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.84 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…8958backed Yes | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Yes | 31c | 389.7$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked No | 55c | 360.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.46 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 52c | 309.86$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 45c | 199.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 76c | 197.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 44c | 161.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 125.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 53c | 124.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 65.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0f13backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4996…e38bbacked Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 78c | 38.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 37c | 35.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed90…95c4backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked Yes | 30c | 34.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 55c | 25.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 54c | 20.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed Yes | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a30…34b1backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-01?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.