Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8bc783b4c04ed476b3ba5db1393a2db29479004dc963f7a6bfac6685c612e30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 11c | 3,973$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.52 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 3,590$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 25c | 3,104$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 1,550$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.09 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,428$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.56 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,234$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 947.89$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked No | 71c | 926.09$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 9c | 669.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 5c | 545$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 473.59$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 13c | 302.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 71c | 200.26$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed No | 66c | 150.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 29c | 123.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 115.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf4…e221backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 29c | 77.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 64.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 30c | 62.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Yes | 33c | 61.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 75c | 33.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-01?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.