Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3117c6e773956367c6036cca19c1b7bc8f65987c3d235a5569bbc1686fda8eb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 20c | 3,104$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.15 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 80c | 1,993$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.58 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 80c | 910.94$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.63 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 678$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.73 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 58c | 599$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.91 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 20c | 496.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 79c | 365.37$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 36c | 287.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 20c | 248.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Over | 34c | 208.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 19c | 191.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 80c | 162$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 66c | 146.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 78c | 93.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 79c | 65.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 42c | 47.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 28c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 68c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.