Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02a2939087327ba80a876e35f2bd5a8e3964b3130b923886dd04cff7f142c1e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 60c | 18,756$11,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,256.02 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 60c | 9,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,399.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 6,558$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,942.63 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc8…6ca6backed Under | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 4,279$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.62 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 39c | 3,846$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.15 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e01…0875backed Under | 40c | 2,933$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 40c | 2,425$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 58c | 2,189$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.09 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 1,346$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.43 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 40c | 1,326$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.89 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…7191backed Under | 40c | 1,317$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.06 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…be73backed Under | 40c | 1,063$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 46c | 885.36$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 838.68$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.25 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 743.45$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.07 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 464.86$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.12 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 40c | 450.85$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.51 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 40c | 425$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 355$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 64c | 310.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 48c | 309.84$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.73 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 297$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 38c | 250$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 173.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 72c | 155$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 39c | 146.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 43c | 130.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Over | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 59c | 122.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 40c | 108$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 39c | 104.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 39c | 86.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…1080backed Over | 42c | 80.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 40c | 67.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 75c | 63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 40c | 60.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Under | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 40c | 51.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 21c | 49.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 69c | 46.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Under | 40c | 42.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 40c | 40.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…839fbacked Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Under | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 62c | 38.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 74c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 65c | 32.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 30.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 39c | 30.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 39c | 28.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 40c | 27.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 67c | 26.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…f0e9backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 59c | 17.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.