Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31294a87986085ddc686bf4002969fe742f69999e8d66a258bac13e867bbc6e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 6,523$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,170.62 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 2,909$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.47 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…f749backed Over | 56c | 511.24$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 62c | 425.39$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.9 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 70c | 358$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.55 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 18c | 275.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.9 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 242.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.21 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 214.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.78 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 178.1$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 30c | 146$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Under | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Under | 38c | 124.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 57c | 119$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 43c | 115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 29c | 95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 17c | 94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 59c | 69.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 31c | 64.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 63c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 47c | 56.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 74c | 46.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5this page
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: New York City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.