Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3fceb3a36c953badb76fbb30b05927de71b0e0385c3a6aa9b9e362219a1e0b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 59c | 1,646$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.86 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked Under | 41c | 1,458$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.86 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 59c | 999.46$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.78 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 63c | 667.9$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.42 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 42c | 663.78$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.79 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 592.67$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.99 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 66c | 508.31$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.03 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 339.13$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 59c | 290.19$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 41c | 188$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 42c | 170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 24c | 161.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 17c | 145.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 13c | 144$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 17c | 116.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 34c | 106.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…6d91backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 42c | 91.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 23c | 75.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Over | 59c | 72.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 60c | 49.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 41c | 45.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 43.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Over | 59c | 40.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 71c | 39.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 41c | 34.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 58c | 34.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 32.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 79c | 29.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 60c | 21.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…f9b0backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5this page
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: New York City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.