MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3130ee9add076e681bbc63e6b78f6d4cc90fbeed553dd2eb4330f1e22cef44d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 1,714$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.59 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 47c | 1,038$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.98 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 47c | 694.7$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.05 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 60c | 541.21$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.99 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0a…6165backed Over | 63c | 519.24$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 43c | 389.12$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…57bebacked Over | 48c | 302.51$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Over | 32c | 287.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 65c | 220.22$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 48c | 209.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Over | 32c | 194.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 171.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 65c | 135.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 752 | 44%331 W · 421 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 90.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 65c | 78.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Under | 66c | 71.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 41c | 57.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 51.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 51c | 51.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 49.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef56…b743backed Under | 62c | 47.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…5c55backed Over | 67c | 37.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 43c | 27.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 48c | 26.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Under | 60c | 22.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington NationalsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.