MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca387c7d64148f488f6d5549d301b272f67161bff1febb6e171800954c7d79e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed San Francisco Giants | 0c | 18,091$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 1,123$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.99 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 893.85$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 777.68$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.71 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 749.35$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.33 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 515.18$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.18 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 454$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.23 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 249.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 195.16$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 160.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 113.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 113.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 110.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 88.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked San Francisco Giants | 23c | 81.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Washington Nationals | 67c | 67.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Francisco Giants | 27c | 66.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 65.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed San Francisco Giants | 19c | 58.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 58.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 48.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 35.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 34.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 31.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 30.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 28.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…9aa2backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington NationalsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.