World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win between 41% and 44% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x313f680b4eacd5d5d9b95aecee48e0e1f54261d32f68fbcdda12aa816e534e79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ebf…874dbacked Yes | 38c | 34,066$12,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,120.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9017…b286backed No | 62c | 34,066$21,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,120.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 56c | 4,989$2,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,782.19 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 43c | 2,672$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.62 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 1,350$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.52 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…9281backed Yes | 43c | 920$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…a913backed No | 57c | 885$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab7…15a7backed Yes | 43c | 735$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 621$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.62 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 46c | 573$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.92 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…a6d3backed No | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…afe5backed No | 8c | 499.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 45c | 457.37$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…a5c5backed No | 57c | 440$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…f149backed No | 57c | 280$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…d90ebacked Yes | 43c | 260$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…53cebacked Yes | 43c | 239.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81e…24a8backed Yes | 43c | 225$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 42c | 180.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…2b47backed No | 57c | 170$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…8224backed No | 57c | 170$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 58c | 163.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…db66backed Yes | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…28b9backed No | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8c…a4ecbacked Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 39c | 127.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 55c | 120.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…90d9backed Yes | 43c | 105$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a2…adc9backed No | 57c | 95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41e…d491backed Yes | 43c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…fee5backed Yes | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed Yes | 78c | 44.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…f534backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win between 41% and 44% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?this page
- Will the Liberal Party win between 35% and 38% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win between 44% and 47% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win between 47% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win more than 50% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.