Earnings · resolved market
Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31451d5ec63c74a64a33eedd3e23a4f357aaaf7942c3a7a94046e40c7f4952ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,534 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81ea…c3c5backed No | 5c | 3,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 7c | 2,400$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 7c | 2,117$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.83 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 6c | 2,104$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 6c | 1,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 782.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 581.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 12c | 500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 3c | 484.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 459.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 4c | 448.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 7c | 429.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 6c | 417.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…dd94backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae85…a62ebacked No | 14c | 228.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 5c | 214.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 13c | 207.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…db4bbacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 12c | 95.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed No | 20c | 82.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 16c | 69.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 64.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 79c | 63.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…6127backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.