Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x315bd3c853733fa8463d179f7fde2b677eb3138795dd13b4f5c3cdd6e9dd63bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,238 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked Yes | 5c | 16,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,280 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 2c | 10,636$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.91 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…226abacked No | 2c | 1,472$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 7c | 1,429$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,311$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.6 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3d…194abacked No | 4c | 1,305$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 1,250$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9451…3ec2backed Yes | 11c | 965.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 946.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.68 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 3c | 748.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36d…3654backed No | 2c | 651.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb59…b0e0backed No | 4c | 583.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 518.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…3ff8backed No | 4c | 492.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 30c | 473.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.93 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…c425backed No | 7c | 432.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 11c | 419.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked Yes | 15c | 343.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 66c | 294.5$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 67c | 292.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 5c | 285.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 23c | 284.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.63 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 79c | 283.45$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 253.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 11c | 248.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.95 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 20c | 247.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.43 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…fbe3backed Yes | 8c | 243.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…12bfbacked Yes | 17c | 233.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 5c | 201.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 40c | 198$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.82 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb0…4397backed Yes | 7c | 171.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 11c | 166.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.41 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 151.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 149.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked Yes | 10c | 144.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.22 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 56c | 135.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 35c | 135$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 130.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 10c | 117.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 20c | 95.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 62c | 89.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 88.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 86.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked Yes | 47c | 84.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 34c | 74.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 64.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 59c | 50.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…4864backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 25c | 44.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…f8c9backed Yes | 29c | 41.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd2…7a8cbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 37.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 33.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…3eb0backed Yes | 72c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b3…7ee4backed No | 48c | 26.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Yes | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed Yes | 65c | 23.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…c34ebacked Yes | 63c | 23.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 68c | 17.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.