Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d6eac9170a5d719a3639a33ec277b578dc52fb7c753c19e36ecd4ff64f7fbd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,524 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dbe…6351backed Yes | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8093…b208backed No | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,686$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…226abacked Yes | 1c | 5,107$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 3,928$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 34c | 1,765$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.7 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…fdf7backed Yes | 14c | 1,606$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 1,253$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x513b…2ca1backed Yes | 3c | 1,170$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 907.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes | 3c | 848.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 31c | 637.46$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.12 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 583.05$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.01 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…c425backed Yes | 5c | 459.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 13c | 419.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.8 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 36c | 419.03$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 398.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 62c | 359.58$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.03 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 357.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 58c | 318.22$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 4c | 312.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 302.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 291.73$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 279.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…6884backed Yes | 4c | 263.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 5c | 257.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 19c | 257.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.44 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 47c | 250.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 47c | 250.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 32c | 248.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 18c | 241.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.26 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 31c | 227.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.28 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 48c | 217.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 204.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 41c | 203$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…2caebacked Yes | 12c | 168.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 76c | 164.86$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 21c | 133.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd7…b384backed Yes | 8c | 131.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 41c | 126.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 124.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 122.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 57c | 119.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…b49ebacked Yes | 9c | 109.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 77c | 108.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 15c | 107.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 31c | 105.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…1aa6backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed No | 18c | 99.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 15c | 96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 80c | 91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 16c | 89.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 72c | 87.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 84.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…2f76backed Yes | 15c | 80.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 64c | 78.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 62c | 76.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 74.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 26c | 74.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed Yes | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 79c | 67.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ae9abacked Yes | 26c | 63.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 36c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 36c | 55.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 50c | 54.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 46c | 53.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed No | 39c | 51.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 77c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 36c | 49.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 52c | 48.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked Yes | 56c | 43.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 51c | 41.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 75c | 38.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed Yes | 57c | 38.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 64c | 37.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…cf14backed Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 53c | 33.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 73c | 32.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 79c | 28.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…b9a6backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…c34ebacked Yes | 51c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 77c | 23.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed Yes | 69c | 22.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 50c | 21.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 57c | 20.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.