Music · resolved market
Will Israel come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x316021b327f8f735f40f44b75ef25cbcf2d78fd5bfed740e811a5c3c8c8e39bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4496…97c0backed Yes | 74c | 2,711$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.04 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 40c | 2,500$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.79 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 9c | 2,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked No | 79c | 1,450$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.26 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 64c | 1,141$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.59 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 22c | 1,123$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 7c | 1,100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…fe7bbacked Yes | 16c | 836.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +220%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…17dabacked Yes | 45c | 809.83$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eed…4de4backed Yes | 18c | 696.45$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +169.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc39f…136abacked Yes | 21c | 521.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +137%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…d5bfbacked Yes | 20c | 457.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +401.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes | 22c | 429.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 57c | 319.86$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 14c | 291.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.23 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…5f49backed Yes | 16c | 252.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +215.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb5…e36ebacked Yes | 13c | 214.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 9c | 177$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…2f06backed Yes | 20c | 155.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…64c8backed Yes | 40c | 125.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…6e66backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abb…46f9backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…c012backed Yes | 13c | 114.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d52…58f0backed Yes | 20c | 101.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…4c3ebacked Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa707…6963backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 85.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc692…dfa6backed Yes | 42c | 71.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…a487backed Yes | 16c | 70.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…fb5bbacked Yes | 20c | 70.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 54c | 60.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 56.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…e258backed Yes | 49c | 44.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…0887backed Yes | 50c | 40.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0795…6d8dbacked Yes | 41c | 29.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 27.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 18.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Australia come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Italy come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.