Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31689d7dbf6e321f6330fc5b08b8bd56d6337c65a4ac72307163a5de0846981c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfdd…bcf4backed Yes | 22c | 3,925$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,061.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2508…2e79backed No | 78c | 1,315$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…7434backed No | 78c | 1,310$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…1437backed No | 78c | 1,300$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 3c | 471.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 435.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.86 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Yes | 20c | 401.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 386.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 363.46$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 70c | 347.71$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.21 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 21c | 333.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.01 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 313.74$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.79 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 53c | 292.12$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.12 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 288.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 276.35$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.95 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 23c | 274.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.73 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 9c | 257.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 250.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 236.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 223.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.66 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 43c | 204.22$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 193.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.37 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 186.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 185.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 71c | 178.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 131.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 125.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 19c | 108.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 19c | 107.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 105.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 22c | 88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 49c | 81.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…acb2backed Yes | 21c | 81.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 14c | 76.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 65c | 76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 72.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 70.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 67.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 28c | 60.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 24c | 59.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 19c | 56.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…e9c1backed No | 78c | 50.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 46.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…367dbacked Yes | 33c | 42.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 27c | 41.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 74c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 29c | 34.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 33.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 77c | 30.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 29.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 21.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 18.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 79c | 18.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…727fbacked No | 80c | 17.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 16.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed No | 73c | 14.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…a1c0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 55°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.