Tennis · resolved market
Nuno Borges vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x316d473492fa9a562f9d85c13db9d061f52203e0f1745986eddaa8b9a1c7d386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 10,434$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,433.75 | 362 | 47%170 W · 192 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…e272backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 6,201$3,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,224.47 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 1,487$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.93 | 664 | 44.6%296 W · 368 L | +29.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 774.89$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.31 | 441 | 51.9%229 W · 212 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 750$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 965 | 41.5%400 W · 565 L | +14.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 408.5$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.76 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 249.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 247$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 949 | 40.1%381 W · 568 L | +30.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 1,534 | 42.4%651 W · 883 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 204.45$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 172.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 129 | 42.6%55 W · 74 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 54c | 118.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,540 | 49.2%758 W · 782 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under 2.5 | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1,802 | 58.9%1,062 W · 740 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 85.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 70.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb0…408cbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 370 | 53.8%199 W · 171 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 185 | 57.3%106 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…26cbbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuno Borges vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Borges vs. Darderi: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Borges vs. Darderi: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Luciano DarderiLuciano Darderi won
- Set 1 Winner: Borges vs DarderiBorges won
- Set 2 Winner: Borges vs DarderiDarderi won
- Set Handicap: Borges (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)Darderi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.