Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Borges (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ea148a909ea35758795259931bcd98762df7bf48cb444e40160203a8a4352ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darderiof Borges, Darderi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfeb9…95c9backed Borges | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.99 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Borges | 36c | 2,344$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.78 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Darderi | 62c | 2,288$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.59 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Borges | 38c | 2,237$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…3e80backed Darderi | 64c | 1,367$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.44 | 60 | 75%45 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…f13abacked Darderi | 64c | 1,016$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.63 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…9c8fbacked Darderi | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 117 | 60.7%71 W · 46 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Darderi | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Borges | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Darderi | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Darderi | 61c | 491$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…1489backed Borges | 49c | 407.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Darderi | 61c | 324.59$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Darderi | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Darderi | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Darderi | 66c | 103.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Darderi | 63c | 91.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Darderi | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Borges | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Darderi | 40c | 77.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Borges | 37c | 67.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…886abacked Darderi | 62c | 55.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Borges | 54c | 46.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…c9f9backed Darderi | 46c | 46.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Darderi | 60c | 35.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Borges | 40c | 34.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Darderi | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Darderi | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Borges | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…5a67backed Darderi | 61c | 24.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Borges (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)this page
- Borges vs. Darderi: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Borges vs. Darderi: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Luciano DarderiLuciano Darderi won
- Nuno Borges vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Borges vs DarderiBorges won
- Set 2 Winner: Borges vs DarderiDarderi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.