Tennis · resolved market
Tenerife 2: Stefano Travaglia vs Alejandro Moro Canas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3170b8525560b7904a4dda673425c24f8e0bd88d39d244d5b9cd34999a08b045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canasof Travaglia, Canas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4699…5051backed Travaglia | 12c | 1,284$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.38 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Travaglia | 4c | 303.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Canas | 60c | 288.01$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Travaglia | 59c | 260.52$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Canas | 39c | 230.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Canas | 61c | 197.03$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Travaglia | 54c | 183.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…0db4backed Travaglia | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 545 | 47.9%261 W · 284 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Travaglia | 61c | 138.72$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Travaglia | 62c | 111.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Canas | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Travaglia | 59c | 75.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed Travaglia | 59c | 71.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Travaglia | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Travaglia | 63c | 50.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x980d…985fbacked Travaglia | 59c | 42.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…3798backed Canas | 43c | 33.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…1d14backed Canas | 49c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd1…1e86backed Canas | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…9169backed Travaglia | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed Travaglia | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.