Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x317d8a925c81fdbedb16da8f2c4fb62d8b92fc17b84c747efa4a57b6da302e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec87…43f9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed Yes | 75c | 973.41$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 23c | 799.87$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.9 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 13c | 556.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 398.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 375.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked No | 58c | 328.12$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.12 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 316.69$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1ca5backed Yes | 15c | 302.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 16c | 258.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 228.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 16c | 153.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 69c | 144.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 138.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 42c | 134.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 63c | 130.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 16c | 115.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 57c | 94.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 43c | 92.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 39c | 82.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 71c | 81.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 75.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 31c | 75.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 51c | 63.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 60c | 59.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 36c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 58.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 63c | 57.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 52.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 67c | 49.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…d04ebacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…4c2bbacked Yes | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 60c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 73c | 43.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 73c | 43.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 68c | 42.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked Yes | 75c | 42.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 47c | 35.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 68c | 33.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 76c | 31.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 76c | 31.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 77c | 31.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 60c | 29.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 44c | 28.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 70c | 28.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 26.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…bd14backed Yes | 70c | 25.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…ca58backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…55d0backed No | 51c | 22.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed Yes | 77c | 21.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 73c | 21.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes | 71c | 21.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…a412backed Yes | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…45e5backed Yes | 74c | 18.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f901backed Yes | 74c | 17.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Yes | 70c | 15.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1510…2402backed Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.