Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9fd2e875e9f396cf7d83d42e7745d71f1d66641d885a96fc0b39a2c5fcd172f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 23c | 499.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.03 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 474.58$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 4c | 419.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.39 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 5c | 416.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.67 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 350.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 318.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 125.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed No | 78c | 100.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 34c | 99.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 22c | 90.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 79.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 38c | 73.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 25c | 70.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 47c | 69.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 73c | 56.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 22c | 54.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 48.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 23c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 50c | 40.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 36.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 80c | 30.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 28.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 73c | 27.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked No | 76c | 27.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 76c | 19.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 76c | 19.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 76c | 17.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 71c | 17.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1510…2402backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 79c | 14.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…45e5backed No | 74c | 13.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.