La Liga · resolved market
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3193b7f51ae2ecfaffacfbc638267c76197d5dddb50ba568ce5b8bbd0eb446ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 18c | 17,506$3,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,151.1 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 14,007$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.76 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 19c | 13,539$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.12 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 18c | 2,501$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 13c | 2,282$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…5c81backed Over | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 17c | 1,624$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.55 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Under | 21c | 929.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 18c | 612.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 79c | 600$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 78c | 452$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 78c | 436.81$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Under | 3c | 372.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 22c | 347.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 21c | 275$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 280 | 45.4%127 W · 153 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 74c | 269.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…075bbacked Over | 77c | 259.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 22c | 197.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 18c | 190$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 20c | 173.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 27c | 147.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 16c | 128.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff1…c554backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Under | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 48c | 123.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 108.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbd…2a3fbacked Over | 79c | 107$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 22c | 104.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 99.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 24c | 91.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 76c | 91.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 17c | 80.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…83f5backed Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 48 | 77.1%37 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5this page
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 0.5Over won
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Under won
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Under won
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Under won
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)RCD Espanyol de Barcelona won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)RCD Espanyol de Barcelona won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.