AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3195b24abb4d1ac87f8b79a6b1c6235c60138071e31e58fdad5772c173ef21d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7db0…8c18backed No | 61c | 336.95$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 68c | 164.62$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…fdbabacked Yes | 37c | 155.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 151.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 136.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 43c | 108.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…1c5dbacked Yes | 42c | 101.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 93.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 69.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 46.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2c…ad2fbacked Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…a5e7backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4e…70cebacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…ea63backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 51c | 23.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.50T on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on June 30?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.20T and $1.30T on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.40T and $1.50T on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $1.00T on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.