CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ce9979d40f786bea73b2fec3596805a44210ece6a9c4ca9e0ac98d4f0140bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof NIP, 100 Thieves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked 100 Thieves | 72c | 443$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7e…f207backed NIP | 28c | 355$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked 100 Thieves | 71c | 210.59$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 280 | 37.9%106 W · 174 L | -17.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…fcccbacked NIP | 31c | 196.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 204 | 44.1%90 W · 114 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked NIP | 14c | 108$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NIP | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9b…6df8backed NIP | 25c | 60.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 558 | 45.7%255 W · 303 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked NIP | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked 100 Thieves | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed 100 Thieves | 75c | 25.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 239 | 63.2%151 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked 100 Thieves | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed 100 Thieves | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group DNIP won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner100 Thieves won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 WinnerNIP won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.