Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31d40b9ac877e5f0bde9318d16d1a76a45c020aa4e668f12d9c59a5b62f02cf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,206$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 47c | 1,290$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.3 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 51c | 979.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 681.41$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.58 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 43c | 676.06$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 36c | 583.97$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 518.22$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.8 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…5169backed Under | 43c | 381.78$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 51c | 334.82$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.48 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 38c | 279.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 31c | 267.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…eafabacked Under | 55c | 266.03$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 52c | 265.82$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 264.07$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 211$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…968bbacked Over | 51c | 198.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 173.65$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…a3a2backed Under | 61c | 159.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…5c9ebacked Over | 44c | 133.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 38c | 109.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 43c | 56.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 53.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 49c | 50.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b2…4eb3backed Under | 63c | 49.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed Under | 46c | 41.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 65c | 37.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 45c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 51c | 27.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 61c | 25.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 49c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Over | 65c | 21.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 52c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 56c | 19.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)San Diego FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.