Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Giulio Zeppieri vs Rei Sakamoto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e447369fcca04cfff4b34308fff2d0b19593ab3f5d98e3561bd990ba79311b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sakamotoof Zeppieri, Sakamoto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Zeppieri | 18c | 7,956$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.88 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sakamoto | 79c | 6,719$5,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.28 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Zeppieri | 54c | 2,407$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sakamoto | 56c | 1,230$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.98 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sakamoto | 46c | 1,215$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.94 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Sakamoto | 47c | 850$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.69 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Zeppieri | 54c | 669.66$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.39 | 307 | 44.6%137 W · 170 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Sakamoto | 46c | 512.86$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.93 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Zeppieri | 30c | 458.84$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.03 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Zeppieri | 54c | 372.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.18 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Zeppieri | 17c | 338.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Sakamoto | 49c | 307.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.98 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…bc89backed Sakamoto | 48c | 287.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sakamoto | 60c | 232.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…0fb5backed Sakamoto | 48c | 206.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Zeppieri | 52c | 206.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Sakamoto | 49c | 205.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Zeppieri | 50c | 205.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Zeppieri | 53c | 188.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Zeppieri | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Sakamoto | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Zeppieri | 53c | 86.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Sakamoto | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Sakamoto | 50c | 76.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sakamoto | 46c | 61.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed Sakamoto | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…3956backed Zeppieri | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…8249backed Sakamoto | 77c | 50.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Zeppieri | 25c | 49.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…4426backed Zeppieri | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Sakamoto | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Sakamoto | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…7812backed Sakamoto | 49c | 41.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Zeppieri | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sakamoto | 46c | 39.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…54afbacked Zeppieri | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Sakamoto | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Sakamoto | 62c | 20.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Zeppieri | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Zeppieri | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…e1f0backed Zeppieri | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a53…70a1backed Sakamoto | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Zeppieri | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 244 | 46.3%113 W · 131 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…d72fbacked Sakamoto | 70c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.