Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3212c40eaa6b65c393b815f67d43209876bb5dec3c9a53b2a07005ad49fdf393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 25c | 571.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 415.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 34c | 407.7$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 66c | 304.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 29c | 243.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 67c | 183.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 75c | 135.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 58c | 120.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 24c | 111.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 76c | 111.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 107.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 74c | 104.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…e3c2backed Under | 21c | 101.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 33c | 58.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 77c | 47.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 62c | 47.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Under | 26c | 41.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 75c | 39.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 80c | 37.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 74c | 35.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 68c | 16.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 75c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5this page
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.