Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x808a63abbbce6a8d76256a358386bbe0fd13a615b0110f7b44949506c50d22a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 29c | 3,771$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.94 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 80c | 1,873$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.33 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,145$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.77 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 31c | 1,119$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 23c | 1,100$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.99 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 36c | 477.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 78c | 422.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 70c | 375.34$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 75c | 357.7$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 346.86$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 293.5$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 70c | 217.94$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 71c | 209.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 28c | 173.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 68c | 167.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 74c | 152$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 99.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 72c | 93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 70c | 63.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 79c | 62.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 71c | 48.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 68c | 41.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 80c | 37.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 71c | 24.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2650backed Under | 79c | 17.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5this page
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.