TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,227 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x976d…430cbacked Yes0c26,709$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.24100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes0c8,173$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30258%2 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55c6…30f4backed Yes0c7,251$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce7…bc67backed Yes33c2,637$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d0…794bbacked Yes4c1,619$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa954…f31cbacked No67c1,329$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f0…b6c6backed No67c1,308$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c989.99$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.356,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd72e…15aabacked No11c711.39$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.98137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No52c564.19$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.1132157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x554a…96e3backed No74c559.43$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.683852.6%20 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes32c541.77$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No32c525.11$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.0284124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes69c482.24$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.9395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No72c458.35$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes49c413.63$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1724932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No13c397.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.7359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c336.5$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No24c336.14$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.5734618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes30c330.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.551,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes65c310$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5719047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8711533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes30c299.94$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3916738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes28c285.83$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6181234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c276.54$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes45c269.98$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.729836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes29c267.18$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.967727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad92…af55backed No33c235.12$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.692213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd4…98f1backed Yes18c223.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes32c199.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No77c180$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1642857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes75c175.74$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3534651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes14c159.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.31216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes55c158.37$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1499961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No29c148.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.531170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3000…0ccdbacked Yes54c140.14$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No60c130.57$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.171,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No43c128.33$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5199962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a2e…2a36backed Yes29c113.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No75c100.77$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.712,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b3…e5d9backed No78c99.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e8…64e4backed No30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.993638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed Yes24c99.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes73c99.01$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2920144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No61c98.9$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7854037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes25c97.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2270133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c94.31$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c89.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.257,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes22c89.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1319133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes22c89.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1313732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes73c89.21$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8834067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes16c85.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.318164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x65c7…9109backed Yes28c81.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.662259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes28c70.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.811128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes39c70.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8434219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes26c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff9b…6a02backed No20c68.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4515834.2%54 W · 104 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c02…ba96backed No72c68.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.998341%34 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x481f…92f0backed Yes35c66.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.66100%0 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No39c65.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.251,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes27c64.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc059…722cbacked Yes37c64.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a00…929bbacked Yes66c62.76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.472965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2517…87d9backed Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27540%30 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No66c59.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.71,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No64c59.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8956265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe211…c34fbacked Yes67c59.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No31c52.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.313531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes78c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3927540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.972,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c49.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes30c49.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1549941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa620…fc1ebacked Yes47c49.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c66…544fbacked Yes50c48.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e8b7backed Yes45c47.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.365117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes29c46.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes44c46.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.419529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec0…251abacked Yes25c45.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.271717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-59.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No70c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2d…c6b9backed No71c43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d17…b313backed Yes29c41.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes34c40.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c39.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.563,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7362…9e04backed Yes56c35.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc89…095cbacked No36c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.33534.3%12 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes32c34.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed Yes38c34.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.169162.6%57 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2917…e7acbacked Yes32c34.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No74c34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8432760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d28…a6ecbacked No33c33.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.28683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad1b…439bbacked No48c32.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No78c32.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.091,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed Yes38c31.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked No71c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.474062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick68cpaid+6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.