TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,882 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc4c…444cbacked No0c3,510$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.084429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…e512backed Yes37c2,670$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5570…bfddbacked Yes36c2,643$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd33d…d595backed Yes35c2,638$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab2a…c195backed Yes37c2,628$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb868…72abbacked No3c2,390$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.32110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes76c1,799$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.5166144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc23c…eb20backed No63c1,350$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf3…42debacked No64c1,343$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes24c1,341$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.521,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab9b…a8fabacked No65c1,326$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f94…094bbacked No63c1,322$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0717…82e1backed No63c1,320$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b2…8594backed No65c1,312$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b5…e406backed No63c1,306$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabc7…5fd5backed No64c1,300$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c1,193$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.116,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes61c779.45$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.138239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes59c758$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.0648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad92…af55backed Yes66c750.65$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.952213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No8c748.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9959742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes39c705.57$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.974,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes31c625.69$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.9195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed No75c424.61$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.292814.3%4 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d0…794bbacked Yes16c402.43$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf84d…5e65backed No76c393.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009256.5%52 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c369.01$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes37c314.72$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19924932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes47c300.12$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8611533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes54c275.87$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.571,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No74c235.6$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c235.48$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes20c230.97$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.4633726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes18c218.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.2734319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No45c212.42$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6731170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes49c210.48$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.957727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c200$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c199.65$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes27c192.04$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.531868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No75c186.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c171.86$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.788,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c164.79$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes19c158.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4542857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671c…b8f2backed Yes40c156$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+124.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes57c143.42$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No16c141.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.336819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No16c141.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4bb…6736backed Yes42c141$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c140$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.83,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes51c140$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No72c139.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4311878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No62c132.9$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.171,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No63c130.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.751,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9198…f83ebacked Yes45c124.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.84944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes27c119.14$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.011,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3000…0ccdbacked Yes70c119.05$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.93425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c115.96$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.253,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes40c115.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.853145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes59c99.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.555141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No29c97.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1284124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ddb…513dbacked No66c95$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.551471.4%10 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes23c90$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.972726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes23c90$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.311425.4%29 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes30c89.26$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes44c85.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes27c81.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5618164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xff9b…6a02backed No27c78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1215834.2%54 W · 104 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80fb…372ebacked No65c76.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c02…ba96backed No67c75.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508341%34 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes23c74.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8620144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes62c73$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8659818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes29c68.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0420942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No43c68.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4113531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e8…64e4backed No30c68.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.593638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No40c67.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2332157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes29c65.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1822728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes27c65.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6886847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5255942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafc7…216ebacked Yes28c64.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+61.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b7e…4792backed No60c61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd4…98f1backed Yes33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2517…87d9backed Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.627540%30 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes27c59.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.695129.4%15 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No36c59.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4413453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed No69c54.31$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.478433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2bcf…8322backed No58c51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…9527backed Yes20c50.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+402.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3919047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3411341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe659…967ebacked No58c48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc56…b1b7backed Yes28c45.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa620…fc1ebacked Yes57c42.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e7…db75backed No60c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x025e…433bbacked No64c41.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc52…6ea2backed No38c41.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.892138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No61c41.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes33c41.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.632,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.