Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c7b31c32572bf80a202cd886a966361db8a11a2047592fdf4d2f3f6ef66fb6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,882 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 0c | 3,510$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…e512backed Yes | 37c | 2,670$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5570…bfddbacked Yes | 36c | 2,643$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33d…d595backed Yes | 35c | 2,638$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…c195backed Yes | 37c | 2,628$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…72abbacked No | 3c | 2,390$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 76c | 1,799$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.51 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…eb20backed No | 63c | 1,350$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…42debacked No | 64c | 1,343$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 1,341$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.52 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…a8fabacked No | 65c | 1,326$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f94…094bbacked No | 63c | 1,322$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0717…82e1backed No | 63c | 1,320$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b2…8594backed No | 65c | 1,312$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…e406backed No | 63c | 1,306$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc7…5fd5backed No | 64c | 1,300$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 1,193$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 61c | 779.45$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.13 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 59c | 758$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.06 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…af55backed Yes | 66c | 750.65$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.95 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 748.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 705.57$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 625.69$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.91 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed No | 75c | 424.61$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.29 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…794bbacked Yes | 16c | 402.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 76c | 393.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 369.01$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 37c | 314.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 47c | 300.12$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 54c | 275.87$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 235.6$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.26 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 235.48$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.89 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 20c | 230.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.46 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 18c | 218.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.27 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 45c | 212.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 49c | 210.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.17 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 199.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 27c | 192.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 75c | 186.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 171.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 164.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 19c | 158.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.45 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…b8f2backed Yes | 40c | 156$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 57c | 143.42$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 16c | 141.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 16c | 141.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bb…6736backed Yes | 42c | 141$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 140$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 72c | 139.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 62c | 132.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 130.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…f83ebacked Yes | 45c | 124.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 27c | 119.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0ccdbacked Yes | 70c | 119.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 115.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 40c | 115.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 59c | 99.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 29c | 97.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…513dbacked No | 66c | 95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 30c | 89.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 44c | 85.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 27c | 81.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed No | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80fb…372ebacked No | 65c | 76.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 67c | 75.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 23c | 74.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 43c | 68.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 68.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 40c | 67.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 29c | 65.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 65.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc7…216ebacked Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…4792backed No | 60c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…98f1backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 36c | 59.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 69c | 54.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…8322backed No | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…9527backed Yes | 20c | 50.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +402.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…967ebacked No | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…b1b7backed Yes | 28c | 45.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…fc1ebacked Yes | 57c | 42.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e7…db75backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…433bbacked No | 64c | 41.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…6ea2backed No | 38c | 41.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 61c | 41.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 33c | 41.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 62°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.