Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x321ad7fe2a40f43073d2eda737bab8ed395a671f6dedb243727cc8f4cefa7620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,839 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed No | 56c | 21,111$11,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,730.03 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Yes | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,499.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 46c | 4,443$2,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 45c | 4,253$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,345.04 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 42c | 4,103$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.43 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,967$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.92 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked No | 55c | 1,092$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 61c | 819.67$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.75 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 39c | 778.24$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.9 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 46c | 582.16$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 44c | 568$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 55c | 563.85$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.09 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 44c | 452.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.27 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed No | 10c | 442$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…449bbacked No | 4c | 329.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 10c | 308.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 45c | 253$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 8c | 244.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 63c | 231$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 49c | 227.75$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 199.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Yes | 48c | 139.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 44c | 138.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 56c | 120.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Yes | 45c | 79.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Yes | 44c | 72.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed No | 29c | 70.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 29c | 67.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 45c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Yes | 44c | 65.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 59c | 62.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…09a4backed No | 36c | 55.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 41c | 32.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 56c | 30.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 44c | 30.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…d445backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2e25backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 22.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 21.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 55c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 55c | 18.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed No | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.