Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3227c2abae6d6e7a5f398144746f148053d5f23c7db8e3996f6a0dd2a66cb170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,339 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,830$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.08 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 29c | 1,250$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.06 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Over | 48c | 650$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Over | 50c | 464.28$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b10…0473backed Over | 48c | 391$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c4…7771backed Under | 52c | 315$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…eac2backed Under | 52c | 312$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c1…66c8backed Over | 48c | 289$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…ccd5backed Under | 52c | 284.28$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…9ce6backed Under | 52c | 260$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…6a54backed Over | 48c | 207$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…2987backed Over | 49c | 203.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 196.79$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 15c | 149.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa839…6f8cbacked Over | 48c | 148.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…9db7backed Over | 48c | 135.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 46c | 108.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…9b44backed Over | 48c | 105.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f2…fe1bbacked Over | 50c | 100.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -11.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 35.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.