Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf544431d0416ee00c055f7ec3192e974107246f2a270d8610b1d4ccb3dfd68d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,568 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,476$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.6 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 1,011$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.91 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Over | 26c | 770$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 25c | 561.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…fe7ebacked Under | 26c | 388$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…656cbacked Under | 26c | 327$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…2af0backed Under | 26c | 319$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb2…0912backed Under | 26c | 287$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +188.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…d39abacked Under | 26c | 270$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bd…349abacked Over | 74c | 247$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Over | 73c | 237.5$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…99cfbacked Over | 74c | 232$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…50d4backed Under | 26c | 219$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…219cbacked Over | 74c | 218$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 31c | 198.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.98 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…efccbacked Under | 26c | 197$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c8…cad4backed Under | 26c | 187$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…1e88backed Over | 74c | 186$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…065abacked Over | 74c | 181$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…ef42backed Over | 74c | 178$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…a37fbacked Over | 74c | 171$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b0…8779backed Over | 74c | 164$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…7bf6backed Over | 74c | 159$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…52d0backed Over | 74c | 156$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…7fdebacked Over | 74c | 155$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…f1edbacked Over | 74c | 147$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 68c | 139.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…374bbacked Over | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…49e4backed Under | 27c | 61.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…5c32backed Under | 27c | 60.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Under | 27c | 57.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Under | 27c | 56.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 72c | 49.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 70c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 50c | 41.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Over | 58c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 35c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Under | 57c | 27.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Over | 74c | 22.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.