Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32368604e4eabbdf817a0ff5ae7275cb7c5f5fc7b89674f0516f495f868ff4b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f64…9600backed No | 1c | 2,857$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 1,156$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 45c | 581.27$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.37 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 60c | 332.32$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.38 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 79c | 268.25$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 51c | 204.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 201.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 56c | 193.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 135.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 130.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 62c | 113.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 97.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 50c | 94.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 80.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 79.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 70c | 79.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 68.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 67.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 62.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 58c | 60.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 54.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 49.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 47.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a7…19a3backed Yes | 42c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed No | 44c | 44.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 46c | 44.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 55c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 24c | 41.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 40c | 39.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 37.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 54c | 37.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 59c | 37.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…7521backed Yes | 75c | 33.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 68c | 29.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 44c | 25.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 47c | 25.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 24.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e3…f73fbacked No | 47c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 73c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 52c | 19.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 53c | 19.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 19.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 19.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…bd31backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 62c | 17.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.