Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a1f7bff078c6a7f7880dc9e637df77bbb3eec64af43307df494c5967098995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 17c | 656.08$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 8c | 401.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 43c | 363.64$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…411abacked Yes | 22c | 335.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 10c | 277.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 216.73$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 205.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 188.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 157.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 145.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 136.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 128.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 123.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 123.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 15c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 111.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 85.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 74.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 16c | 72.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 67.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 25c | 60.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 21c | 54.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 41c | 50.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 38c | 49.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 72c | 47.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 24c | 45.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 45.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 41.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 44c | 35.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed No | 79c | 35.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 42c | 34.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 34.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 33.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 60c | 33.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 73c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 76c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 25.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 23.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 68c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 72c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 58c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 58c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 79c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 18.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 17.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.