Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32421d3b8ec19b6f3e60375dc5b36198889f0c8e9ac87324c05332b120b64dd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,160$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 71c | 524.96$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.21 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 348.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 17c | 160.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 158.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 158.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 147.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 78c | 133.2$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 125.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 120.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 119.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 104.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 93.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 27c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 31c | 76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…d2ddbacked Yes | 27c | 72.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…6737backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 42c | 65.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 62.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 38c | 57.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 52.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 52.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 48.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 43.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…b176backed Yes | 35c | 37.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 68c | 36.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 33c | 36.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked Yes | 37c | 31.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 59c | 27.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 67c | 20.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 76c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 77c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.