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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,002 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c554.87$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.428,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No8c533.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4930859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No36c340.95$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1859021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c313.25$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.51,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c300.58$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7919…ca3fbacked No62c291.13$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.53452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c242.08$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes46c222.17$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.61,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes72c207.06$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.911442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No25c199.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0d…ca21backed No30c183.74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eae…eab7backed No73c162.56$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick71cpaid-47.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes17c155.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9374023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x120d…5a76backed Yes29c149.4$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No68c145$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8549038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes29c144.24$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.351,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1304…751ebacked No50c137.91$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4913067.7%88 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No39c136.42$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.77,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c128.58$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.996,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f44…c470backed Yes35c125$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.457546.7%35 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes75c113.93$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.988561.2%52 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes71c112.9$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6457545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes25c112.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31e…0f11backed Yes77c105.1$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.091338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No38c102.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.231,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30d9…2ab9backed No51c100.49$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes49c94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.943,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No35c91.63$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.321,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c88.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x65f9…4425backed No72c87.58$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.067266.7%48 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes43c83.9$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.766352.4%33 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No32c78.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No75c76.31$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.071,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.63,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe868…6faebacked Yes21c69.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c68.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.999,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c61.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.072,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4c…444cbacked No61c61.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.74429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes53c61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.784362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No70c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4232760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes49c58.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7228329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No37c58.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.581,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2de…8209backed Yes57c52.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.933171%22 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb91d…d2ddbacked Yes39c51.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked No63c51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2413533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3741733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.517433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No51c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.491,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5322…fa84backed Yes51c49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.013831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c48.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.623,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked No58c47.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8315136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0408…3d68backed No80c47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.621262.3%132 W · 80 L+20.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38ff…1acdbacked No44c46.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.524748.9%23 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No30c45.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.532,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22be…ba43backed Yes72c43.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.032982.8%24 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+24.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes58c43.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2455942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e0…c2cdbacked Yes43c41.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.691050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No64c37.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2311449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No80c37.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa053…adcbbacked No33c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes79c34.18$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1811172.1%80 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No54c34.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.521,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes32c33.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.967129.6%21 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+82.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fa…4b88backed No54c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No79c31.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2562555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes39c30.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.362060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.322540%10 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-20.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes56c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.571,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce6…99f3backed No79c25.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick73cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c25.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.497,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No60c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.420150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No57c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1119058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc25d…67b3backed Yes67c22.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3211161.3%68 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes70c20.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.288650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x789d…af8bbacked Yes75c20.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.139060%54 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc744…955cbacked Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…b4f6backed Yes71c17.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1063…ab93backed Yes73c16.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.32650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed No65c15.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes80c12.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5611233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.