Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x324923f291f168e6a6143b348418d124ad8bf3153dcc37fd312ff535b98ca732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 1,165$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 42c | 527.08$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.47 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 3c | 406.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 34c | 346$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 18c | 340.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.76 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 29c | 304.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.62 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 15c | 303.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.14 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 295.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 44c | 207.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 195.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 165$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 22c | 161.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 57c | 150.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 136.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 17c | 118.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 40c | 116.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 104.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 72.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 29c | 67.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 72c | 66.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 27c | 66.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 43c | 64.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 63.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 58c | 62.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 53.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 53c | 45.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 44.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Yes | 30c | 41.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…8665backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 77c | 29.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 73c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…5bd5backed No | 79c | 17.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.