Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5533156e44a52b9a85fd09b94604b0285a2f8921a068d7e943b52e867b4001f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 25c | 462.39$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 75c | 399.97$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 259.28$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 224.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked Yes | 9c | 195.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 78c | 158.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 79c | 157.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 16c | 152.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 27c | 152.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 23c | 150.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 144.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 55c | 135.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 30c | 133.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 23c | 110.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…bd3cbacked Yes | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed Yes | 28c | 64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 62.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 61.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes | 29c | 58.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 76 | 9.2%7 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 20c | 54.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…60bbbacked Yes | 37c | 53.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 53.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…c804backed Yes | 37c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 72c | 44.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f5…029bbacked Yes | 29c | 40.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 38.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 57c | 38.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Yes | 29c | 36.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…8e81backed No | 71c | 36.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…e4abbacked Yes | 28c | 36.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 35.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 71c | 35.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 76c | 34.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed Yes | 32c | 33.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed Yes | 41c | 29.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 69c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 70c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 64c | 16.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 68c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.