Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d851157cc158cf138030a3d30218214518121ff6419a13b56bd2f0cb3152b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd43…51b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,792$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 66c | 1,382$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 55c | 1,141$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 32c | 307.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.62 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 45c | 228.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 195.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 170.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 13c | 161.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed Yes | 64c | 157.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…f592backed Yes | 46c | 154.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 47c | 139$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 136.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 42c | 134.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 99.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 56c | 89.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 33c | 83.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 53c | 79.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 49c | 74.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 39c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd545…fd22backed Yes | 41c | 68.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 35c | 67.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 65.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…8665backed No | 64c | 62.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 54c | 56.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffb…3b2cbacked Yes | 45c | 56.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…4212backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 48c | 54.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 55c | 45.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 60c | 42.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 41.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 51c | 41.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 35c | 41.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 40.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…e1bbbacked No | 60c | 39.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed No | 53c | 37.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 53c | 35.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 52c | 35.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 47c | 31.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 44c | 30.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed No | 50c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 50c | 29.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 48c | 25.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked Yes | 45c | 24.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 57c | 24.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes | 51c | 21.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…ed01backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…c72abacked Yes | 64c | 19.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.