Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3274afadf13fa83e61443e2d2103ed9eee3a2b8060bfa61bb06003c0c4cd4850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 73c | 1,698$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.54 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 24c | 1,197$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 25c | 1,179$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.75 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…c5a5backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…96b1backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60b…799fbacked Yes | 27c | 977.78$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…e5c7backed Yes | 26c | 596.15$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 74c | 554.99$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9d…e0d7backed No | 75c | 498.83$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…8edbbacked No | 75c | 498.83$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…3181backed No | 76c | 326.2$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…7e63backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 78c | 229.55$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…1e63backed No | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806e…23ccbacked Yes | 26c | 189.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 23c | 142.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b4…09a3backed Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba41…095cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -10.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 73c | 95.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…3cf3backed No | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1c…5d3fbacked Yes | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…f168backed No | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 27c | 85.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fb…1cd5backed Yes | 27c | 75.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…be30backed Yes | 27c | 46.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 74c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Paris Saint-Germain?Yes won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.