Champions League · resolved market
Will Arsenal beat Paris Saint-Germain?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ec4ac3790c2f1c6ff9aac618354d0db33b570b5e3e4b9ff2a4f542645778c79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 56c | 5,939$3,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.31 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 44c | 2,515$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.4 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 43c | 1,805$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.21 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 27c | 1,593$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.98 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 45c | 1,389$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.05 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,311$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.54 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 43c | 1,265$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.12 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 5c | 1,182$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed No | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Yes | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 76c | 704.45$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 71c | 689.37$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.05 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…9730backed Yes | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…9c92backed Yes | 57c | 477$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…0ee0backed No | 46c | 476.61$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…23cabacked No | 44c | 438.64$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…807abacked Yes | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 44c | 401$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…4586backed Yes | 57c | 353.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…10d0backed Yes | 57c | 352.63$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +149%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a23…079fbacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 31c | 299.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 57c | 299.67$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9125…9b72backed No | 44c | 296.82$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…919dbacked No | 44c | 245.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ab…7f03backed Yes | 58c | 233.31$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 58c | 198.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6137…d39abacked No | 44c | 196.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 56c | 183.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b8…471ebacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5041…32cdbacked No | 44c | 147.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…106dbacked No | 43c | 145$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fe…e468backed Yes | 57c | 121.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe1…cf7abacked No | 44c | 113.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…e32bbacked Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2014…0e52backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…cb7fbacked No | 44c | 105.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d6…e639backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba41…095cbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…4301backed Yes | 57c | 87.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9f…af72backed Yes | 57c | 80.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007a…7f5ebacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a4…f169backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b73…c1acbacked Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b5…5a79backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…0190backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…4ce7backed No | 44c | 42.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435c…5762backed Yes | 56c | 41.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed Yes | 57c | 40.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…3113backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 76c | 33.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed No | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 56c | 27.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…3846backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…cd8abacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd37…256ebacked Yes | 58c | 24.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…93c4backed No | 46c | 24.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked Yes | 57c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351c…2db3backed Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal beat Paris Saint-Germain?this page
- Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal?No won
- Will the match between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.