Champions League · resolved market
Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd21ed8f60af44801db0784045bc31b88447d6afaa5683dfd458f70c7ae63c7e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 18c | 5,555$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 18c | 5,555$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…5947backed Yes | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x651f…c190backed Yes | 19c | 2,100$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 19c | 1,062$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…d10cbacked Yes | 20c | 801.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 80c | 520.95$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd07e…f13bbacked Yes | 6c | 517.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c56…fe4abacked Yes | 20c | 475.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa693…7e08backed Yes | 19c | 321.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 19c | 313.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 20c | 225$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 79c | 190.52$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 80c | 135$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 18c | 116.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…8cb4backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…c75fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…ca57backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…14e4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Paris Saint-Germain?Yes won
- Will the match between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.