Tennis · resolved market
Ningbo Open: McCartney Kessler vs Liudmila Samsonova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x329bbfe57d55bcd6e957236e4648cc3f8cd15ee7f55d567d0634678b202dffac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kesslerof Kessler, Samsonova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kessler | 50c | 5,284$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.02 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Samsonova | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Kessler | 51c | 2,606$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.96 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Samsonova | 48c | 2,336$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.67 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Samsonova | 49c | 2,217$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.05 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Samsonova | 34c | 2,021$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.68 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Kessler | 67c | 2,004$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.59 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Kessler | 50c | 1,775$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.55 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Samsonova | 30c | 1,662$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Kessler | 55c | 1,499$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.74 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kessler | 60c | 1,364$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.39 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Samsonova | 48c | 1,215$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.32 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kessler | 71c | 930.61$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.84 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Samsonova | 66c | 740.97$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.04 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Kessler | 65c | 705.9$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.21 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Samsonova | 51c | 600$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.79 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kessler | 70c | 589.44$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.81 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Samsonova | 34c | 578.23$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.77 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Samsonova | 49c | 495$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Kessler | 77c | 423.87$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Samsonova | 49c | 358.94$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.88 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kessler | 48c | 324.3$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Samsonova | 45c | 318.2$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Samsonova | 50c | 224.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Samsonova | 31c | 223$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Samsonova | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Samsonova | 48c | 199.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Kessler | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Samsonova | 52c | 185.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Samsonova | 51c | 172.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Samsonova | 42c | 136.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Kessler | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Samsonova | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Samsonova | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…a034backed Kessler | 52c | 65.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Samsonova | 49c | 63.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Kessler | 63c | 61.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Samsonova | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Samsonova | 60c | 45.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Kessler | 52c | 38.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Kessler | 48c | 37.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Samsonova | 33c | 37.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Kessler | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Kessler | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Samsonova | 51c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.