TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,131 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x198f…c419backed Baltimore Orioles56c892.86$500 inWon+$392.8611540%46 W · 69 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Arizona Diamondbacks45c794.13$356 inLost-$356.1788053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks11c598.09$67 inLost-$67.12,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks29c481.34$140 inLost-$140.4713818.8%26 W · 112 L-17.2wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-46.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles71c198.25$141 inWon+$57.055,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles80c121.52$97 inWon+$24.36,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Baltimore Orioles60c80.19$48 inWon+$32.281,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Baltimore Orioles54c77.69$42 inWon+$36.0524554.7%134 W · 111 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles52c60.89$32 inWon+$29.3610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks48c56.17$27 inLost-$27.211,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2b…02e8backed Baltimore Orioles49c39.57$19 inWon+$20.18933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fad…a796backed Arizona Diamondbacks54c37.92$20 inLost-$20.489448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles76c20$15 inWon+$4.81,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks71c19.65$14 inLost-$13.954,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.