MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x567324845c407a5544e98ee532e105cbc27b7359256c57a5d3ef2d737bdbacd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 58c | 1,694$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.6 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 1,456$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.24 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 57c | 394.37$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.04 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 376.36$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.18 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 328.64$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Under | 71c | 139.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 45c | 106.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 45c | 106.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 30c | 105$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 95.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 46c | 95.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 91.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 87.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 50c | 61.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 56c | 58.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 46c | 55.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 44c | 55.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Under | 54c | 48.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 45c | 47.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 42c | 46.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Over | 35c | 32.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 57c | 25.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…cddbbacked Over | 58c | 25.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 61c | 23.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 57c | 22.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 15.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 16.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.