TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,733 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e4a…311cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks63c6,000$3,780 inLost-$3,780.1412247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Baltimore Orioles37c5,238$1,923 inWon+$3,314.441,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Baltimore Orioles37c996.44$369 inWon+$627.761,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks63c802.29$503 inLost-$503.426,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks63c539.99$339 inLost-$338.791,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks12c491.45$59 inLost-$592,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Baltimore Orioles37c260.05$96 inWon+$163.8318151.4%93 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles40c253.29$101 inWon+$152.466,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Baltimore Orioles34c195.52$66 inWon+$129.0429141.6%121 W · 170 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Baltimore Orioles38c192.56$73 inWon+$119.3934145.2%154 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Baltimore Orioles38c177.36$67 inWon+$109.9656946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks70c135.36$95 inLost-$94.845,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Baltimore Orioles36c133.91$48 inWon+$85.5148339.8%192 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2b…02e8backed Baltimore Orioles20c132.18$27 inWon+$105.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles19c127.67$25 inWon+$102.832,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c120.5$75 inLost-$75.179,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Baltimore Orioles16c93.09$15 inWon+$78.2184122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Baltimore Orioles37c91.01$34 inWon+$57.3433547.5%159 W · 176 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb79f…88e8backed Arizona Diamondbacks64c76.44$49 inLost-$48.925653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Baltimore Orioles15c66.25$10 inWon+$56.2523522.6%53 W · 182 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks74c63.74$47 inLost-$47.2655464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c55.28$34 inLost-$34.2865549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles38c54.1$20 inWon+$33.621,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Baltimore Orioles37c50.64$19 inWon+$31.994549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles38c48.14$18 inWon+$29.851,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles36c42.94$15 inWon+$27.482,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7387…ccf1backed Baltimore Orioles27c40.94$11 inWon+$29.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Baltimore Orioles36c33$12 inWon+$21.1228352.3%148 W · 135 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles58c27.65$16 inWon+$11.716,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks63c19.56$12 inLost-$12.321,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.