MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32e263c3985c6bce7037b935fcfa8a314282baaefc20ac3257585fcd9d9628aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 3,947$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.37 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 2,857$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 53c | 1,392$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 838$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 555.22$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.85 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 542.73$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.92 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 489.34$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.39 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 486.96$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 425.65$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 330$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 261.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.42 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 35c | 219.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Texas Rangers | 66c | 213.97$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.17 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 120.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Boston Red Sox | 51c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Texas Rangers | 28c | 94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8905…a454backed Texas Rangers | 14c | 76.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 68.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 51.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 51.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 42.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 39.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa31d…a5a3backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 30.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 20.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Texas Rangers | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…a3cabacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…8148backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…4b4fbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…4066backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1213…dafdbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2259…6a52backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb958…350abacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.