MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe62ac032cb92b245c54009888e2f2a405807b6417939a8ebad9ca90aa9cefdbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 2,778$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 33c | 2,164$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.88 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 67c | 1,989$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 1,696$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 1,237$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 571.06$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 38c | 456.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 431$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.73 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 31c | 389$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 66c | 354.86$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 316.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 50c | 196.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 122.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 57c | 118$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 118$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 68c | 117.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 46c | 113.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 100.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Under | 75c | 86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 42c | 83.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 43c | 66.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 49.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 74c | 43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 67c | 26.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Over | 50c | 23.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Over | 50c | 23.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…5ff8backed Over | 50c | 23.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Over | 50c | 23.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 55c | 22.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Under | 54c | 22.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…e7b3backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 72c | 19.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 53c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…60fabacked Under | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee80…7749backed Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…525fbacked Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 77c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.