MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32f08cae82a9cd946737c50f36eb1337ade50c01179c4b4c4cb71ddc26c0738e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 45c | 5,380$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,962.01 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 60c | 4,882$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 4,865$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 42c | 1,102$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.72 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 1,054$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 42c | 1,049$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.71 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 31c | 629$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.89 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 37c | 517.61$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 38c | 441.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.77 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Over | 3c | 439.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 40c | 409.33$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 40c | 335.09$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 218.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 41c | 195$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 59c | 161$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 147.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 51c | 126.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…db73backed Under | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 36c | 117.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 38c | 113.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 49c | 101.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 77.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 68.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 53c | 58.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 42c | 51.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 41.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 39.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 52c | 37.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49be…48cbbacked Over | 39c | 27.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +198.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 47c | 27.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 67c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.